Project Description

This project examined the combined roles of socioeconomic inequality, migration, and populist-party rhetoric in the rise of European populist protests. The hypothesis proposed that extremist parties, in their efforts to mobilise voters, have exploited (perceived) inequalities and recent migration trends by a) strategically appealing to nationhood as the boundary of an imagined in-group and b) portraying immigrants as an economically and culturally harmful out-group.

Research Questions

The research project was conducted in three phases, each aiming to address the following questions:

1. How have socioeconomic inequalities evolved over the last several decades, and what are the underlying mechanisms driving the concerns and fears among both the ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ of these changes?

2. What is the impact of migration on preferences for reallocation in receiving countries, and how does this affect support for the liberal script?

3. How do (perceived) socioeconomic inequalities and migration, as portrayed in populist-party rhetoric, influence the increasing electoral support for populist parties across Europe?

Research Approach

To explore the overarching theme, the research was structured around four key pillars. First, the study investigated how inequality leads voters to support populist parties. Second, it examined the influence of migration inflows on voters’ decisions. Third, it focused on the effects of both affective and ideological polarisation. Finally, the research analysed which issues populist parties emphasise in their communication efforts.

The project employed a range of quantitative methodologies to address the research questions. These included a regression analysis using survey data (cross-national and longitudinal), survey experiments, natural experiments, and machine learning models for text classification. To examine the connection between immigration and support for the liberal script, the project used cross-national and longitudinal data from the past two decades. Additionally, quantitative text analysis of party press releases and surveys were conducted to test hypotheses regarding key topics in populist rhetoric and their electoral impact.

This methodological approach allowed the research team to quantify the extent to which increasing inequalities, as part of the liberal script, strengthens contestations—manifested in greater support for populist parties, increasing polarisation, and stronger anti-immigration attitudes.

Core Findings

The project examined the causes behind the support for populist parties, which are central actors in contesting the liberal script. The research focused on the allocation of economic resources, migration patterns, and party communication as contributing factors.

In terms of inequality, the findings indicated that increasing income inequality was associated with rising support for populist parties in Western Europe. However, the specific attitudinal changes driving this association were unclear. It was also found that voters who perceived society as unequal were more likely to support populist parties. Although shifts in the perception of inequality made individuals more populist in certain contexts, they did not directly influence voting decisions for these parties. Regarding migration, the study revealed that the influx of EU migrants following the EU Eastern enlargement led to increased anti-immigration attitudes among natives in Germany, particularly among those working in sectors with labour market competition from the new migrants and those holding materialist values.

In the area of polarisation, the research showed that affective polarization influenced non-political decisions in moral dilemmas. For instance, supporters of left and right political camps were willing to withhold lifesaving support for patients from the opposing camp in an online survey. However, ideological polarisation between social groups in Western European countries did not necessarily increase. Particularly in Germany and Switzerland, levels of polarisation remained relatively stable. Finally, the study found that political parties were more likely to address migration issues in their communication following the so-called refugee crisis, with a significant increase observed in the case of the AfD in Germany.

Academic Innovations

The findings made significant contributions to both the Cluster’s and Research Unit’s overarching questions by examining the causes for the rise of central actors in the internal contestation of the liberal script: populist parties. As part of the RU (Re-)Allocation, our findings supported the notion that contestations of the liberal allocative script can be endogenous. Specifically, we found evidence that increasing inequalities and backlash against migration can contribute to the rise of populist (particularly right-wing) parties in Western Europe. However, inequalities were not as pivotal in explaining this rise as initially anticipated. In addition to this, our study revealed no significant trends in ideological polarisation within Germany and Switzerland.

An area that remains unexplored is whether the combination of increasing inequalities, polarisation, and migration policies offers a more comprehensive explanation of the causes behind the rising support for populist parties. Our results also did not address other broad trends identified by the research unit, such as the rarity or marginal nature of contestations to the liberal allocation script, or the presence of mutually exclusive varieties of this script.

Publications

Stoetzer, Lukas / Giesecke, Johannes / Klüver, Heike 2022: Perceived Inequality and Populism, OSF Preprints.

Stoetzer, Lukas / Munzert, Simon / Lowe, Will / Gohdes, Anita / Cali, Basak / Helbling, Marc / Maxwell, Rahsaan / Traunmüller, Richard 2022: Affective Partisan Polarization and Moral Dilemmas during the COVID-19 Pandemic, Political Science Research and Methods 11(2): 429-436.

Stoetzer, Lukas / Giesecke, Johannes / Klüver, Heike 2023: How does Income Inequality Affect the Support for Populist Parties?, Journal of European Public Policy 30(1): 1-20.

Erfort, Cornelius / Stoetzer, Lukas / Klüver, Heiko 2023: The PARTYPRESS Database: A New Comparative Database of Parties’ Press Releases, Research & Politics 10(3): 1-7.

Traber, Denise / Stoetzer, Lukas / Burri, Tanja 2023: Group-based Public Opinion Polarization in Multi-Party Systems, West European Politics 46(4): 652-677

Stoetzer, Lukas / Kroh, Martin / Dasey, Leonard 2024: The Backlash against Free Movement: Does EU-internal migration fuel public concerns about immigration?, European Journal of Political Research 63(4): 1578-1600.