On 19 December 2021, Gabriel Boric won a landslide victory in the second round of the Chilean presidential election. At 35, the former student leader will become the youngest president in the country’s history. The candidate for Apruebo Dignidad, a new coalition of left-wing parties, has promised to bury neoliberalism in one of its birthplaces. Boric had to overcome a deficit in the first round to defeat José Antonio Kast and his insurgent Partido Republicano movement, which ran on an uncompromising authoritarian and conservative platform. In a country famed for its democratic and economic stability in Latin America over the past three decades, voters were left with a choice between two political outsiders offering radically different visions of the future. Is this the end for the liberal script in Chile?

The Strange Death of Liberal Chile

We think that it is too early to pronounce the strange death of liberal Chile. Hailing from the left, Boric himself is very much a contestation of the economic self-determination inherent to the liberal script. At the same time, he could be its political saviour. As has previously been argued in two contributions to the SCRIPTS blog series, inequality poses a threat to democracy.[1] Although it is not an outlier in Latin America, Chile ranks among the most unequal countries in the world.[2] Despite important advances on several other indicators, the fruits of growth left too many behind. Only with a new social contract can the liberal script familiar to many in the West – free-market liberal democracy – hope to be preserved. Moreover, given Chile’s historic place in global discourse of liberalism on issues like market reform and democratisation, the emerging social and political order could have far-reaching consequences.

The challenger: “traditional values” and Pinochetismo

Of the two, Kast was least likely to achieve unity. A lawyer by profession, the father of nine is a devout Catholic who promised to uphold traditional values in an increasingly diverse and secular society. Kast continues to defend the economic record of the military dictatorship, unsurprising given that his eldest brother Miguel, himself a ‘Chicago boy’, served as a minister under General Augusto Pinochet. His restoration project blends a conservatism reminiscent of the Chilean right at the end of the twentieth century. Security, order, and economic growth were occasionally attractive messages with the electorate. In the end, voters opted to preserve fragile social gains. The centre-right may have stood a better chance at the polls were it not for outgoing president Sebastian Piñera’s perceived mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic. Besides, traditional parties across the spectrum still need time to adapt to the change that is sweeping through Chile.

A symbolic break with the past

And so, president-elect Boric is called upon to shape a new political, economic, and social consensus. His programme points to a transformational agenda. Social policy will reflect the base that propelled the leader of Convergencia Social into La Moneda presidential palace. The broader coalition is composed of several social movements—including indigenous Mapuche and feminist and environmentalist groups. Their de-colonial conception of Latin America views inequality as an intersectional phenomenon. Cabinet appointees also reflect a generational and gender change in frontline politics. The president’s inner circle is made up of trusted comrades (Giorgio Jackson, Izkia Siches, Camila Vallejo) and figures with leftist pedigree (Miguel Crispi, Maya Fernández). That said, the all-important finance ministry will be headed by elder statesman and moderate Mario Marcel.[3]

On the economic front, Boric aims to replace the market as a provider of social services. If achieved, this long-held aspiration of the socialist left would put an end to the post-dictatorship settlement, which largely kept intact neoliberal reforms implemented during military rule while increasing social spending. Boric and the new left define themselves in opposition to older generations in the Concertación, who governed Chile during the transition to democracy and for most of the past 30 years. Poverty fell dramatically in this period, but wealth and income inequality remained stubbornly high.

President and street politician

The consensual and technocratic governance that characterised this era has been eroded by social mobilisation in the last decade. Boric was an active participant in the process, owing his political rise to the student protests that began in 2011. Apruebo Dignidad was also able to channel street politics that led to and were emboldened by the estallido social or ‘social outburst’ of 2019–2020. The unrest had already got rid of the dictatorship-era Constitution of Liberty, which critics saw as a legal obstacle to the fairer allocation of resources. Unlike his partners on the left, Boric supported the forming of a Constitutional Convention, later backed by an overwhelming majority in a plebiscite. He remains a staunch defender of the body charged with drafting a new charter. It remains to be seen whether social mobilisation and the party claiming to represent its voice can deliver fundamental economic change.

Reality check for radical reform

Pension reform is a case in point. Boric has promised to do away with the Administradoras de Fondos Pensiones (AFP), privately-administered pension funds for the people. The current system, tweaked since its introduction in 1980, has a minimal redistributive component. Nationalisation may be a popular rallying cry, but it has real consequences for economic prosperity. Firstly, transfer of ownership would mean that citizens would lose an average annual return of eight per cent and receive instead a promise of an as-yet-defined yield. Secondly, the proposed creation of a single public entity will probably increase interest rates beyond 6.7 per cent, their highest level since the financial crisis of 2008, further choking off economic growth.

There are already signs of a softening in position. During the presidential run-off, Boric said his administration would adopt gradual reform while maintaining a balanced budget. The economic outlook may force his hand once he takes office on March 11^th. With the economy still recovering from the coronavirus pandemic, growth is only estimated at a mere two per cent in 2022. Inflation is expected to rise, stock markets are volatile, and the business community is sceptical. The country is still heavily dependent on copper, which accounts for around 40 per cent of all exports. Under these adverse circumstances, it will be hard to raise the tax take by a planned five per cent in only four years. Financing radical change therefore requires a combination of realism, competence, and good fortune.

Positive outlook for political stability

The historic margin of victory should nevertheless encourage the new president. He defeated his rival by an unprecedented 10 percentage points (55.87 to 44.12 per cent). Turnout (55 per cent) was also the highest since mandatory voting was abolished in 2012. Chilean sociologist Eugenio Tironi notes the parallels between the cleavage of today and that of the plebiscite on the continuation of military rule in 1988. Then, as now, the time was ripe for change. What followed was an era of stability and progress on many fronts. History may be repeating itself. 

Not quite. An enduring political consensus is self-evidently in the making. The old way of doing things will receive a much-needed and populist-tinged boost from practices, ideas, and actors in social movements. Significantly, Boric’s new polis is closer to the citizenry on the principal issue of the day: inequality. Economically, the path ahead is far more contingent. Commentators have been too quick to portray the incoming administration’s mandate as everything from ‘Venezuelan socialism’ to a ‘social democracy’.

For now, the self-declared millennial leftist is committed to effecting change through democratic institutions, building on the existing social and political order rather than overturning it. If the new administration is swayed by more radical factions, it could fully deliver on the promise to reduce inequality, while also threatening the very prosperity that has delivered material advances for Chileans in the last 30 years. The ghost of Kast or a similar restoration project may ironically ensure a gradual transformation of the country. Due to the peculiarity of Chilean electoral law, Boric cannot run as an incumbent in 2025. Creating a legacy, a goal sought by all leaders, will be left to an anointed successor.

Transition towards socio-economic justice

This election marked a symbolic break with the past. The long transition from dictatorship and through the Concertación years is over. It also represents an opportunity to establish a new form of the liberal script. Self-determination will have to accommodate notions of socio-economic justice, both historical and in the present. Those concerned about social cohesion should follow the Chilean case with interest. Other countries could face a similar reckoning with inequality in the years to come.
                                                                                                                                                                                

[1] Stoetzer, L, 2021, Income Inequality and Populism, SCRIPTS blog No. 33 from 18 May 2021. URL: https://www.scripts-berlin.eu/blog/Blog-33-Income-Inequality-and-Populism/index.html

Linartas, Martyna B., 2021, Fighting Inequality – could we problematize meritocracy, please? SCRIPTS Blog No. 35 from 30 Sept 2021. URL: https://www.scripts-berlin.eu/blog/Blog-35-Fighting-inequality/index.html

[2] World Inequality Database https://wid.world/es/country/es-chile/

[3] Find the full list of appointees at the following link: https://static.emol.cl/emol50/documentos/archivos/2022/01/21/2022012195146.pdf
Please note: Miguel Crispi (mentioned above), who will become an under-secretary or junior minister in the government, is not included in this document, because only ministers are listed.

George Payne is a student assistant in the Junior Research Group “Peripheral Liberalism”. Maximiliano Jara will be joining the same group as a doctoral researcher in Autumn 2022. Both specialise on the history of Chile and its “peripheral liberals”.